On my way to work today, I stopped by at Tesla Showroom at around 10 AM to book one Model 3 car. The booking are opening today and I want to be in the front of the delivery queue. Being a Model S owner, I do get a priority. I am a trader. I am a Gujju (Gujarati people from Gujarat state of India who are generally business minded). I wouldn't miss a chance to book it. It is a matter of putting down only $1,000!
At 10AM when the store was opening, there were 500 plus people in line! So I decided to skip and drive straight to work! This showroom is within 1.5 miles from my work and it does not cost much to drive there in an EV like Tesla MS so I went there around 12:45pm. Still 100 plus people. I decided to wait. Waited around 1 hour and 15 minutes. While I was in the line waiting, this Tesla craze seemed parallel to Tulip mania of 16th century.
At 10AM when the store was opening, there were 500 plus people in line! So I decided to skip and drive straight to work! This showroom is within 1.5 miles from my work and it does not cost much to drive there in an EV like Tesla MS so I went there around 12:45pm. Still 100 plus people. I decided to wait. Waited around 1 hour and 15 minutes. While I was in the line waiting, this Tesla craze seemed parallel to Tulip mania of 16th century.
- There have never been any lines to book new models of any car in the USA in my memory.
- M3 is coming out late 2017. Tesla employees are in front of the queue. Then comes current owners of Model S like myself. Public comes later. No one has seen the car yet. It is to be launched tonight. It has to be a mania to book such a car.
- Tesla company will run out of good announcements after today's launch. They will have to swallow bitter pills going forward. Would they allow use of super chargers to mass market model M3 owners too? Would they be able to provide the support and expand the super charging infrastructure? They would have to announce some tough decisions.
- Tesla customer service and company image is top notch. With a mass market, economy model, they can not continue it profitably with same degree of service.
- Model 3 will be a loss-loss for the company IMO. If it is too good, it can cannibalize sales of very profitable Model S and Model X. This can hurt the bottom line of Income statement though top line may grow. If Model 3 launch is below expectations, it is an obvious loss looking a the euphoric rush for booking today.
- Tesla stock TSLA is at $233 today! A $30B valuation. Contrast that with Honda Motor company- HMC which is valued at $49B. HMC sold cars worth $111B last year and Tesla only $4B!!
- Looking at the super response to model 3, I am sure Apple, Google executives would consider an Electric Vehicle project more seriously. Any announcement for a new player in EV market can be trouble for Tesla.
- Many people do not realize this but Tesla Model 3 will run out of federal and state tax and rebates for most M3 buyers. These benefits which total up to $10K depending on the state you live in, are limited to 200000 units per manufacturer. Tesla almost there to reach that limit.
- M3 is supposed to be available in late 2017. Chevy Bolt promises similar performance and range in identical price range and is going to be available much sooner. They are likely to have tax benefits longer than for Model 3 owners.
- When I was entering my info to book a Model 3 at Tesla showroom 2 hours ago, Tesla employee asked me if I wanted to book 2 cars! With a pause for less than 10 seconds, I said, yes! Why not? I have never decided that fast for even a $10 purchase in my life before ;) I think I represent the perfect evidence for maniac behavior with regards to Tesla Model 3 :)
I am not against Tesla company or Tesla cars. They are the best out there. I love my Model 3. All I am trying to say that, if you trade Tesla stocks or follow Tesla company, I think the best day in Tesla motors' history from 2003 upto 2020 is TODAY. Unless the Short Squeeze takes place in TSLA stocks, I is good time to say a good bye for next few years! I am going to watch TSLA very carefully tomorrow. Oh, I am excited to watch the Model 3 launch by Elon Musk this evening! A $35K Tesla would be really good for people like you and I ;) Who cares if it is not good for TSLA stock, right?
