Elon Musk- Will he leave Tesla?

Here is an interesting post:

Is Elon Musk about to leave Tesla?

Zachary E. Fishbein, Space Systems Engineer, and Technology Entrepreneur

https://www.quora.com/Is-Elon-Musk-about-to-leave-Tesla

Tesla Institutional holdings plummet- Seeking Alpha article

Tesla Institutional holdings plummet- Seeking Alpha article

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4099571-tesla-institutional-holdings-plummet

Tesla stock TSLA touched 376 today and is crashing now. Is the sell off real?

TSLA stock is selling off like crazy right now. It reached 376+ today and made an all time high but now trading around 362! Not sure why it is crashing when overall market is still great. Do you know reason why it is dropping today?
In my trading system, it seems like downtrend, only for TSLA stock, not the Tesla company or Tesla cars, has started. (Profitfromprices, U TURN (sell)). Keep a SL at $380.
What do you think? Are you still bullish, or bearish, on TSLA stock? Please note that I am talking about TSLA stock, not Tesla company!
Here is the link to the signal I use.
http://www.profitfromprices.com/stock_trading_strategy_Short_selling.htm

TSLA Tesla sell off

Tesla Superchargers- Long distance travel in Tesla Model S- Part 2

We did another 1200 miles trip last weekend in a Tesla Model S so I have some more experiences to share with you about Tesla Model S and Tesla Superchargers.

If you have not yet read the first part of this series, please read it here first. Long-Distance Travelling in Tesla with Tesla Superchargers. It lists many of the lessons I had learned during my first trip.

Luckily, we won in the lottery for the Tesla Gigafactory grand opening on the Friday of the last weekend of July 2016! My wife, Arian, and I decided to take Tesla on this trip. Arian and I were excited for touring supposedly the largest factory or any man-made structure in the world! (Unfortunately, only 14% of the structure is ready so it is not yet the largest factory/structure in the world! It is not a #Gigafactory yet but will be in few more years!) I wanted to take Tesla for two reasons. Just two days before the trip, my other son Miraj and I had come back from a 2000 miles trip to various national parks in Utah in our Honda Pilot. (Curious to see photos of the trip? Click here: https://www.facebook.com/pg/photosbyjayesh/photos/?tab=albums ) It was a bit tiring journey particularly when we were driving back home! That is why I was inclined to use Tesla for a more comfortable trip. Another reason was that we were going to visit Tesla's factory so why not drive in a Tesla!

After the first long-distance trip in Tesla during the last weekend of June 2016, we were well prepared this time. Also, we knew what we were getting into. Our expectations were more realistic this time.
The distance to Gigafactory in Reno from Simi Valley was around 490 miles!

We had our first charge at

INYOKERN SUPERCHARGER, Inyokern Market 1353 Brown Road Inyokern, CA 93527. 

We encountered one of the same issues we had during our first trip. The first charger we tried started off well but then power dropped! So we changed to another supercharger and we were able to get above 120 plus Amps.

Then we stopped at Mammoth Lakes for a second charge. We were running late so we didn't charge fully. We intended to charge at the next superchargers at

GARDNERVILLE SUPERCHARGER, TOPAZ LODGE 1979 US 395 GARDNERVILLE, NV 89410 

Our stopping at Gardnerville could have been a story of misery as there was a power outage! Luckily, at Mammoth, I had charged some extra which could help me reach Reno with 15 miles left. However, I heard from a fellow Tesla owner, whom we kept meeting during our trip, that when he reached Topaz Lodge, Gardnerville supercharger, there was an owner of a red Tesla who did not have enough charge to reach Reno!! Not sure what happened to him! I hope he didn't have to stay there waiting for the power to restore!! I THANKED GOD AS THAT COULD HAVE BEEN US STUCK THERE had we not charged some extra at Mammoth Lakes!! So one more lesson, which could be very painful when you are traveling with a family: Superchargers depend on power/electricity and any place could have power outages or technical issues!

After a fun trip to Gigafactory, the next morning, we decided to go visit Lake Tahoe. We stopped by at Superchargers in Reno! Well, the TeslaConnect group had a meet at Superchargers itself! Guess what? So many Teslas there and the supercharger was pack! I had to yell at the group. I had to request loudly to all Tesla owners who had their cars charging. I requested them to charge there for no more than 100 miles! There was a line and we had to wait almost an hour! Some Tesla owner told us that some other Tesla owners, who were staying at Atlantis hotel which is next to the Superchargers, left their Tesla for charging overnight at these superchargers! This created quite a headache for others who were there to charge their cars in the morning!
This reinforced the lessons that I had learned earlier: Not all Tesla owners are reasonable human beings and you need to be ready to wait if you want to use Tesla superchargers. 

I need to be honest on my side. I have mentioned only the bad side of driving long distances in Tesla cars. Let me write about the green side of driving in a Tesla:

1. Driving and riding in a Tesla is much more comfortable than most other cars.
2. It is really GREEN to drive long distances in a Tesla! You do not need fossil fuels and you do not cause any carbon emissions. We drove green all those 1200 miles.
3. It is free!! Supercharges are free!!! Driving 1200 miles in Honda Pilot would have cost us 48 gallons of gas! At around $3, it would be $144!!! We saved all that money.
4. Stopping every 100-150 miles for charging is a refreshing break. You get a chance to relax. 
5. Last but not least. You get a chance to meet fellow Tesla owners when you stop at a Supercharger. Most of them are fun to talk with. 

Lessons learned: Long distance driving in an EV- Tesla Model S. The grass is not really green in an EV.

Last weekend, we decided to take our Tesla Model S on a trip to San Jose. We started from Simi Valley. The destination was Dolce Hayes Mansion in San Jose where my nephew had a wedding reception.

So far, we had driven our Tesla Model S a maximum of 200 miles and it was working out fine. The grass was green and we were happy. This time we needed to drive 370 miles one way! We needed to worry about our drive!
I had two alternatives. I could take the most popular, LA to San Francisco route on Freeway 5, or I take scenic Route 101. Both routes have almost the same miles for us. 101 is probably 10 miles longer. However, before we bought Tesla, most of the time, we chose to drove on 101 for our trips to northern California.

Freeway 5 has the first charger at 122 miles from our home and then the next one was at 77 miles. Normally I charge my Tesla up to 215 miles but this time, I intended to charge it to the max possible. Not sure what was the max but I set it to 235 miles. Anyway, the first supercharger at 122 miles was too soon and the second supercharger at Coalinga would be at 199 miles which would a sort of risk if we ran out. So the choice was to charge the car at Buttonwillow supercharger. Then we had 188 miles to drive before we could charge at Gilroy. This also seemed a kind of risky. We were not ready to make 3 stops during our trip- at each supercharger on the way. On the other hand, on 101 freeway, the supercharger at Atascadero, 174 miles away, made perfect sense. Then Gilroy was 138 miles! This was within our comfort zone. Also, we knew 5 had more traffic. That meant that the superchargers were more likely to be busier. If possible, we intended to avoid waiting at any supercharger. From this perspective too, it made sense to drive on 101 instead of 5 freeway!

Freeway 5 Home  to 20673 Tracy Ave Buttonwillow, CA 93206 122 miles To 24557 W Dorris Ave Coalinga, CA 93210 77 miles (3 hours) to Gilroy Premium Outlets Gilroy, CA 95020 111 miles (1:40 hours) To Dolce Hayes Mansion 200 Edenvale Avenue, San Jose, CA 95136 24 miles To 6701 Amador Plaza Road Dublin, CA 94568 40 miles

On 101 freeway 6950 El Camino Real Atascadero, CA 93422 174 miles (3 hours) to Gilroy Premium Outlets Gilroy, CA 95020 138 miles (2 hours) To Dolce Hayes Mansion 200 Edenvale Avenue, San Jose, CA 95136 24 miles

However, when we started, Tesla kept insisting that we charge our car at Solvang supercharger. However, that was a bit too close so we ignored Tesla's advice and kept driving. We had started with a charge for 235 miles. After we had driven our car for 174 miles and reached Astacadero, we still had 36 miles of charge left! How accurate was Tesla's mileage estimate? Not perfect but it would work. However to get this much mileage I drove with cruise control set to around 65-70 miles! It seemed slow to both of my sons, and my wife, but my goal was to be safe and to avoid getting stuck somewhere. When we started charging our Tesla, it was around 1 pm. It was time for lunch so we looked for a place to eat in Atascadero. We found Sylvestor's Burgers (http://www.sylvestersburgers.com/). We loved the food there. Delicious burgers! It was a bonus for stopping by at this town. In an hour or so, we had our car charged to 210 miles. Our next goal was the Gilroy supercharger. 210 miles charge and 138 miles to drive. This time, I had my son drive the car. Like any kid in his early 20s, he started flying Tesla! He drove with the speed of around 80-85 miles with occasional bursts that reached mph in 100 plus! We covered these 138 miles much quicker but we used almost 200 miles worth of charge! So the first lesson was that the miles range you see on your Tesla depends on several factors. If you are driving uphill, with many stops or changes in speed, or you are driving at or above 75mph, you may not get what the Tesla dashboard shows in your car!
We had another stop of an hour at Gilroy. Wastage of time! I had no mood to make a stop as we were only 24 miles from our destination. However, we needed to charge our car. We needed full charge as there were no superchargers or free chargers around Dolce Hayes Mansion. While car was charging, we roamed around the mall. Bought certain things that we really didn't need! Even though the superchargers were free to use, it was too expensive to spend one hour. So total 2 hours of charging on the way. Most other relatives who started around the same time from the LA region had reached the Dolce Hayes Mansion faster than us. They were probably in slower cars but they reached the destination earlier than us. So another lesson: Tesla is a fast car but it would not take you to your destination faster than any other regular car! 

At the Dolce Hayes mansion, they have a regular charging port- 110V with 9A! This was the first time, I was charging at a regular 110V regular outlet. After I connected, I found that the car was charging around 3 miles per hour! That is slower than my speed when I walk! Lesson learned: if you have an EV like Tesla, you can't think of charging on regular power outlets. You need faster-charging options. At one point during our stay in San Jose, we didn't need car for 20 plus hours so we left it there for charging. We got around 60 miles with this 20 some hours of charging!!

On Sunday, we were coming back from San Ramon after visiting a family. We started around 3pm, Car had 130 miles left. We decided to follow what Tesla had to tell us. It made us stop at supercharger at DUBLIN - AMADOR PLAZA SERVICE PLUS

All charging spots were taken!! We had to wait! After 20-30 minutes of wait, we got a supercharger port! We charged for around 45-50 minutes! Tesla app notified us that we had enough charge to resume our journey. One more lesson learned: you may have to wait at superchargers! There may be a wait when you are in dire need of charge! This can remind you of lines of cars for gas during the oil crisis of the 1980s! Anyway, once we started driving, it told us to drive on Freeway 5! After 20 minutes of drive on a sort of uphill road towards Livermore, Tesla started telling us to go back to Dublin supercharger! We didn't have enough charge!!  One more lesson: Tesla is not as smart as many of us think ;) We followed what it was telling us! However, I had to ignore the advice of driving back to the same supercharger where it had a few minutes ago told me that my car was charged enough! It was quite annoying but we didn't want to go back and stuck in the loop. Simple math in my head showed that we could reach the next supercharger. I reduced my speed from 75 mph to 68 mph. I didn't notice, but Tesla resumed directions to our home. However, it told us to go to Fresno, CA supercharger by taking CA 99 freeway! The Coalinga supercharger seemed a few miles further away on Freeway 5. I was really tempted to drive on 5. I was puzzled why Tesla didn't want me to drive on 5 though that was a shorter route for me! I thought maybe that supercharger was not working or there could be a super long line with excessive wait time! We couldn't take the risk as if we could not charge there, the next supercharger was 122 miles away! Route 99 was 24 miles longer than route 5! We had no option so we continued on highway 99. At the Fresno supercharger, there were only 2 cars charging. 8 slots were open! We put our car for charging. I made sure it was charging at 330 V with 200 plus Amps! We decided to eat at Pieology pizza place. We spent around an hour hoping that we had enough charge! However, when we reached our car, it was charging only at 60 amps. When I was expecting 200 miles worth of charge, we had only 135 miles done! So frustrating! We decided to change spots! The car started charging at 200 amps! Not sure what was the problem there. Considering it as a one-off issue, we ignored it. Now, we had another 45 minutes of a wait before we could resume our trip! We killed time at the Target store nearby. We were tired! I am still not sure why the supercharging station dropped the charge speed suddenly? Is it some programming at Tesla's end to slow down frequent chargers? After we had 215 miles worth of charge, we started driving around 8 pm! Our next destination was the superchargers at  TEJON RANCH SUPERCHARGER Petro Shopping Center 5602 Dennis McCarthy Dr Lebec, CA 93243 

As we had enough charge in between, I had my son drive Tesla his way. He drove generally at 85mph. I am sure he enjoyed driving. When we reached at Tejon Ranch, it was all packed. Luckily, one Tesla left within few minutes so we put our car for charging. We went to nearby Yogurtland. We loved Yogurtland in the early days when it was around 25 cents per ounce. Here it was $0.47 per ounce! Not worth it!! Our time pass cost $14 and around 40 minutes! When we come back to the car, the same problem. The car was charging only at 85 Amps. We didn't have enough charge. I disconnected and reconnected but it would not charge above 65 Amps! My son gave me a weird look because he didn't like my disconnecting and connecting again. I knew it was stupid but that was the only thing I could do to solve the problem and have the car charge faster! Luckily, one port next to our charging port became available. We moved our car there. It started charging with 180Amps plus!! Not sure what was the problem behind superchargers not charging at fast speed, but it happened twice! So one more lesson learned: Don't assume all superchargers act like superchargers! They are moody and sometimes harass you so watch the charging on your Tesla app like you are dealing with a moody teenager! This particular issue cost us almost 1.5 hours more during our trip!
Anyway, we made fun of Tesla on our way back. We were in a super-fast car but most of our relatives had reached home before we did. When we reached home, it was almost midnight!

So many things learned about EV cars and long-distance driving, Tesla and its superchargers in one weekend. Though this is not related to our trip I want to mention one more lesson about Tesla superchargers! There are some owners who take the free charging benefit to a ridiculous extent. It is weird when someone spends more than $80k on a car but walks an extra mile to save a buck or two! There are some people who are obsessed with saving money, and some Tesla owners are no exception. They seem to use superchargers as their home charger! One day, I drove around 100 miles to Corona, CA, and then was driving back from Corona to Simi Valley. I had little charge left so Tesla wisely took me to the Burbank supercharger. Only one spot was open at around 9 pm. In most cars, next to my car were people in PJs and night dresses, surfing on the phones or taking a nap! I was there around half an hour but I was the last one to join them and also the first one to leave!! I assumed they all wanted to charge the car to full capacity! I don't think superchargers are for free charging; they are for the convenience for owners who are driving long-distance and need some charge to reach their destination, or reach home in time! One more lesson reinforced: not all men are created equal: not all Tesla owners are reasonable human beings! There are Tesla owners who do not understand the motive behind the company's free superchargers correctly ;)

Tesla M3 (Model 3) mania reminds me of Tulip mania!

On my way to work today, I stopped by at Tesla Showroom at around 10 AM to book one Model 3 car. The booking are opening today and I want to be in the front of the delivery queue. Being a Model S owner, I do get a priority. I am a trader. I am a Gujju (Gujarati people from Gujarat state of India who are generally business minded). I wouldn't miss a chance to book it. It is a matter of putting down only $1,000!
At 10AM when the store was opening, there were 500 plus people in line! So I decided to skip and drive straight to work! This showroom is within 1.5 miles from my work and it does not cost much to drive there in an EV like Tesla MS so I went there around 12:45pm. Still 100 plus people. I decided to wait. Waited around 1 hour and 15 minutes. While I was in the line waiting, this Tesla craze seemed parallel to Tulip mania of 16th century.

1. There have never been any lines to book new models of any car in the USA in my memory.
2. M3 is coming out late 2017. Tesla employees are in front of the queue. Then comes current owners of Model S like myself. Public comes later. No one has seen the car yet. It is to be launched tonight. It has to be a mania to book such a car.
3. Tesla company will run out of good announcements after today's launch. They will have to swallow bitter pills going forward. Would they allow use of super chargers to mass market model M3 owners too? Would they be able to provide the support and expand the super charging infrastructure? They would have to announce some tough decisions.
4. Tesla customer service and company image is top notch. With a mass market, economy model, they can not continue it profitably with same degree of service.
5. Model 3 will be a loss-loss for the company IMO. If it is too good, it can cannibalize sales of very profitable Model S and Model X. This can hurt the bottom line of Income statement though top line may grow. If Model 3 launch is below expectations, it is an obvious loss looking a the euphoric rush for booking today.  
6. Tesla stock TSLA is at $233 today! A $30B valuation. Contrast that with Honda Motor company- HMC which is valued at $49B. HMC sold cars worth $111B last year and Tesla only $4B!!
7. Looking at the super response to model 3, I am sure Apple, Google executives would consider an Electric Vehicle project more seriously. Any announcement for a new player in EV market can be trouble for Tesla.
8. Many people do not realize this but Tesla Model 3 will run out of federal and state tax and rebates for most M3 buyers. These benefits which total up to $10K depending on the state you live in, are limited to 200000 units per manufacturer. Tesla almost there to reach that limit.
9. M3 is supposed to be available in late 2017. Chevy Bolt promises similar performance and range in identical price range and is going to be available much sooner. They are likely to have tax benefits longer than for Model 3 owners.
10. When I was entering my info to book a Model 3 at Tesla showroom 2 hours ago, Tesla employee asked me if I wanted to book 2 cars! With a pause for less than 10 seconds, I said, yes! Why not? I have never decided that fast for even a $10 purchase in my life before ;) I think I represent the perfect evidence for maniac behavior with regards to Tesla Model 3 :) 

I am not against Tesla company or Tesla cars. They are the best out there. I love my Model 3. All I am trying to say that, if you trade Tesla stocks or follow Tesla company, I think the best day in Tesla motors' history from 2003 upto 2020 is TODAY. Unless the Short Squeeze takes place in TSLA stocks, I is good time to say a good bye for next few years! I am going to watch TSLA very carefully tomorrow. Oh, I am excited to watch the Model 3 launch by Elon Musk this evening! A $35K Tesla would be really good for people like you and I ;) Who cares if it is not good for TSLA stock, right?  

Arian in Tesla Model S