Thursday, March 31, 2016

Tesla M3 (Model 3) mania reminds me of Tulip mania!

On my way to work today, I stopped by at Tesla Showroom at around 10 AM to book one Model 3 car. The booking are opening today and I want to be in the front of the delivery queue. Being a Model S owner, I do get a priority. I am a trader. I am a Gujju (Gujarati people from Gujarat state of India who are generally business minded). I wouldn't miss a chance to book it. It is a matter of putting down only $1,000!
At 10AM when the store was opening, there were 500 plus people in line! So I decided to skip and drive straight to work! This showroom is within 1.5 miles from my work and it does not cost much to drive there in an EV like Tesla MS so I went there around 12:45pm. Still 100 plus people. I decided to wait. Waited around 1 hour and 15 minutes. While I was in the line waiting, this Tesla craze seemed parallel to Tulip mania of 16th century.

  1. There have never been any lines to book new models of any car in the USA in my memory.
  2. M3 is coming out late 2017. Tesla employees are in front of the queue. Then comes current owners of Model S like myself. Public comes later. No one has seen the car yet. It is to be launched tonight. It has to be a mania to book such a car.
  3. Tesla company will run out of good announcements after today's launch. They will have to swallow bitter pills going forward. Would they allow use of super chargers to mass market model M3 owners too? Would they be able to provide the support and expand the super charging infrastructure? They would have to announce some tough decisions.
  4. Tesla customer service and company image is top notch. With a mass market, economy model, they can not continue it profitably with same degree of service.
  5. Model 3 will be a loss-loss for the company IMO. If it is too good, it can cannibalize sales of very profitable Model S and Model X. This can hurt the bottom line of Income statement though top line may grow. If Model 3 launch is below expectations, it is an obvious loss looking a the euphoric rush for booking today.  
  6. Tesla stock TSLA is at $233 today! A $30B valuation. Contrast that with Honda Motor company- HMC which is valued at $49B. HMC sold cars worth $111B last year and Tesla only $4B!!
  7. Looking at the super response to model 3, I am sure Apple, Google executives would consider an Electric Vehicle project more seriously. Any announcement for a new player in EV market can be trouble for Tesla.
  8. Many people do not realize this but Tesla Model 3 will run out of federal and state tax and rebates for most M3 buyers. These benefits which total up to $10K depending on the state you live in, are limited to 200000 units per manufacturer. Tesla almost there to reach that limit.
  9. M3 is supposed to be available in late 2017. Chevy Bolt promises similar performance and range in identical price range and is going to be available much sooner. They are likely to have tax benefits longer than for Model 3 owners.
  10. When I was entering my info to book a Model 3 at Tesla showroom 2 hours ago, Tesla employee asked me if I wanted to book 2 cars! With a pause for less than 10 seconds, I said, yes! Why not? I have never decided that fast for even a $10 purchase in my life before ;) I think I represent the perfect evidence for maniac behavior with regards to Tesla Model 3 :) 
I am not against Tesla company or Tesla cars. They are the best out there. I love my Model 3. All I am trying to say that, if you trade Tesla stocks or follow Tesla company, I think the best day in Tesla motors' history from 2003 upto 2020 is TODAY. Unless the Short Squeeze takes place in TSLA stocks, I is good time to say a good bye for next few years! I am going to watch TSLA very carefully tomorrow. Oh, I am excited to watch the Model 3 launch by Elon Musk this evening! A $35K Tesla would be really good for people like you and I ;) Who cares if it is not good for TSLA stock, right?  


Saturday, January 16, 2016

Friday, December 18, 2015

Tesla Model S as a Birthday Surprise For Arian on 9th Birthday

Project #TSLA4Tesla successfully resulted in a purchase of Tesla Model S for Arian on December 1, 2015. It was ordered in the first week of October 2015 when the balance was around $75k in the project #TSLA4Tesla. After considering tax rebate of $7500 by Federal Government and $2500 cash rebated by California state, this was enough to purchase one Tesla Electric car. (On the delivery day, the profit stood above $90k in TSLA stock trading). It was a bit difficult, psychologically, to send over $80,000 for a car. I never thought I would spend this much money to buy a car. However this was a deal with Arian so my hesitation was my problem LOL. I took some deep breaths and EFTed last payment of approx 80k from my bank account a few days before the scheduled delivery.

At the time of placing order, I wanted this car to be delivered on Arian's birthday which was on December 1st. The delivery agent from Tesla, Van Nuys, CA service station, Sophea Ing made it possible. Tesla is known for its excellent customer service. It fell a bit short though IMO LOL. I had asked Sophea to see if Tesla can add something like a Tesla cap or a sweatshirt for Arian so he can proudly show off his Tesla. Probably Arian is one of the leading Tesla fans among kids his age. That few bucks of generosity by Tesla would have proved to be the BEST MARKETING DOLLARS ever spent in terms of ROI. Arian would have proudly talked about how Tesla is a great car to his friends and whoever he met.  This could push them a bit towards becoming future customers of Tesla or some EV. Well, one who can pay for Tesla car can sure spend a few bucks. However I wanted to tell Arian that Tesla company gave that cap or sweatshirt to its special fan on his 9th birthday. I had asked Tesla Delivery Specialist the same but all she could get was a coffee mug and an umbrella for a customer in California where a chance of using an umbrella is as rare as winning a jackpot in some lottery LOL.

Arian didn't know his car was coming. A few days before his birthday, I was driving him to school. We were talking about Beats headphones. He was pursuing me to buy one for him. During our talk, at one point, I told him that for the money of one Tesla car, one can buy around 500 good headphones. I asked him what he would choose. He immediately said, "No, Tesla is the best". He wanted some video games too so (at the hint of another Tesla owner on MyTesla forums), I asked Arian if he still wanted a Tesla or would he like me to buy all video game systems in the world with all video games available. His answer was same, "Still, a Tesla". Doesn't this prove he is still a big fan of Tesla as much he was when I made this deal #TSLA4Tesla in the beginning of 2014?

On his birthday, I left my car at the local Walgreens parking lot and a friend gave me a ride to work. I took delivery of the car, drove it back to Simi Valley. I parked and left Tesla in the same parking lot in the evening. I drove home in my Honda Accord. As this was his birthday, we were going to local CPK as he wanted to celebrate his birthday there. He is a Pizza lover too ;) I asked my nephew Nihar Patel, 19, to drive us all to CPK. At that point, in privacy, I told Nihar about the Tesla. Nihar got excited and was surprised too. He also didn't know that I was purchasing a Tesla. Arian's mom didn't know it either. Only my older son, Miraj who is a UCSD student, knew it. He was unfortunately in San Diego preparing for his finals. Nihar was the third person in the family to know about this car. I asked Nihar to take some quick video and some photos to capture the moment when Arian met his dream car. When we were driving, I told everyone in the car that I needed to pick up some photos from Walgreens. I had Nihar park next to our Tesla. As Arian spotted this brand new Tesla in the next parking spot, he was excited as always to see a Tesla. This was probably the closest he was to a Tesla. (Same was true for me when I went to test drive a Tesla on the day of ordering. I had touched a Tesla first time that day!). As we come out of the car, and when Arian sees his car, well, feel those moments yourself. Nihar is not a great camera person lol (I myself try to take better photos but that is a different story) but he did capture the moment very well. Here is the video.



With Arian finally in his Tesla, this project #TSLA4Tesla, #Tradingwithapurpose concludes successfully. If you are curious to see all trades made in Tesla stock, click on this link.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Sold to open 4 calls of TSLA_112015C225 at $2.50 on 11/19/2015

I would like to keep some Short positions at this price level so sold these options that are expiring tomorrow.

> TD Ameritrade, Inc. Courtesy Fill Notification
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Account number ending with: 3391
> Account owner: JAYESH PATEL
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> For your order to sell to open 4 calls of TSLA_112015C225 at 2.50 limit, good for today:
>
> You sold to open 4 call of TSLA_112015C225 at $2.50 on 11/19/2015.
>
> This is a notification of a partial fill.
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Please refer to order number 12012732536 when inquiring about this order.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Thank You for choosing TD Ameritrade for your investment needs.
> 200 S 108th Avenue
> Omaha, NE 68154-2631
> www.tdameritrade.com
>

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Sold 400 shares of TSLA at $220.48 on 11/18/2015

Sold 400 shares of TSLA at $220.48 that I had bought earlier today when TSLA dropped from morning's high. When I bought those stocks I put a limit order to sell them at this price.

>
> TD Ameritrade, Inc. Courtesy Fill Notification
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Account number ending with: 3391
> Account owner: JAYESH PATEL
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> For your order to sell 400 shares of TSLA at 220.48 limit, good for today:
>
> You sold 400 shares of TSLA at $220.48 on 11/18/2015.
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Please refer to order number 12010508663 when inquiring about this order.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Thank You for choosing TD Ameritrade for your investment needs.
> 200 S 108th Avenue
> Omaha, NE 68154-2631
> www.tdameritrade.com
>

Bought 400 shares of TSLA at $218.76 on 11/18/2015

Tesla stock TSLA had a good run this morning. It touched above 221 this morning. Then it came back to below $218. It looked good on the chart to do a quick day trade so bought these stocks mostly to sell by end of the day.

> TD Ameritrade, Inc. Courtesy Fill Notification
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Account number ending with: 3391
> Account owner: JAYESH PATEL
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> For your order to buy 400 shares of TSLA at 218.76 limit, good for today:
>
> You bought 400 shares of TSLA at $218.76 on 11/18/2015.
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Please refer to order number 12010355093 when inquiring about this order.
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Thank You for choosing TD Ameritrade for your investment needs.
> 200 S 108th Avenue
> Omaha, NE 68154-2631
> www.tdameritrade.com
>